原文標題：《黃金暴跌一週！「1983年大抛售」再現，中東「賣金籌資」？》

原文作者：董靜，華爾街見聞

黃金本週遭遇 43 年來最慘烈的單週跌幅，歷史的迴響令市場不寒而慄。

本週，黃金跌幅創下自 1983 年 3 月以來最大單週跌幅，現貨金價連續八個交易日下跌，為 2023 年 10 月以來最長連跌紀錄。與此同時，白銀本週跌幅超過 15%，鈀金與鉑金亦同步走低。

此輪暴跌的導火索，是中東戰事持續升溫推高能源價格，進而壓制降息預期。市場對美聯儲加息的押注升至 50%，令這一輪貴金屬抛售浪潮愈演愈烈。

更令市場警覺的是，當前局面與 1983 年 3 月那場由中東產油國大規模抛售黃金引發的歷史性崩盤高度相似——當年，石油收入驟降的 OPEC 成員國被迫變賣黃金儲備換取現金，金價在數日內暴跌逾百美元。

值得注意的是，據歷史數據顯示，本週黃金的跌幅正是 43 年前那場「賣金籌資」風暴以來最慘烈的一次。

降息預期瓦解，黃金避險邏輯失效

美國與以色列上月對伊朗發動攻擊以來，黃金已連續數周下跌，這與傳統意義上「避險資產」的角色形成鮮明反差。

原因在於，戰爭帶來的不是寬鬆預期，而是通膨壓力。目前，市場對美聯儲政策路徑的預測已發生根本性逆轉。

交易員目前押注美聯儲在 10 月前加息的機率已升至 50%。能源價格高企推升通膨預期，而黃金作為不付息資產，在實際利率上行的環境中吸引力大幅下降。

與此同時，當前市場出現了美元流動性趨緊的跡象。交叉貨幣基差互換（cross-currency basis swaps）本週開始明顯走寬，顯示出一定程度的美元融資壓力。

這一現象或許可以解釋黃金遭到抛售的深層邏輯——當美元流動性趨緊時，黃金往往是投資者優先變現的資產之一。

The New York Times reported at the time that the proceeds from the Middle East sell-off quickly flowed into European dollars and other short-term investment tools, causing a softening of short-term interest rates, which then sent a warning signal to the global gold market. As February 21 coincided with Presidents' Day holiday in the United States, the New York market was closed, and the impact did not fully manifest until the following week, triggering a chain reaction of forced liquidation, affecting markets of bulk commodities such as copper, grains, soybeans, and sugar.

ZeroHedge pointed out that the 1983 gold collapse marked the beginning of a bear market cycle in the oil market that lasted for several years—OPEC discipline weakened, market share continued to erode, and oil prices remained under pressure throughout the 1980s.

The Shadow of Stagflation Looming, Can Gold Price Stabilize?

Despite suffering a heavy blow this week, gold has still risen by about 4% year-to-date. In late January of this year, the gold price hit a historical high of nearly $5600 per ounce, driven by investor enthusiasm, central bank gold buying frenzy, and market concerns about Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence.

However, the current macro environment has deteriorated significantly. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs predicts that the rise in energy prices will drag global GDP down by 0.3 percentage points in the next year and push overall inflation up by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points. The risk of stagflation is rising, severely constraining central bank policy space.

Goldman analyst Chris Hussey pointed out that the blockade of the Hormuz Strait has entered its fourth week, and hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict are fading. The longer the oil price remains high due to ongoing conflicts, the harder it is for the stock and bond markets to sustain the narrative of "seeing through short-term pain," and the vulnerability of global assets will be further exposed.

For gold, the trend of real interest rates will be a key variable. If the conflict prolongs, and inflation expectations continue to rise, the Fed's path to rate hikes becomes clearer, the pressure on gold may persist; and once there are signals of easing geopolitical tensions, whether the suppressed safe-haven demand can be rekindled remains the biggest market suspense.

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